Niger’s Junta leader, Abdourahamane Tiani, has been sworn in as president for a transition period of five years under a new charter that replaces the country’s constitution. According to the country’s Secretary General, Mahamane Roufai, this duration is flexible depending on the security situation, the burden of reforms and the agenda of the Confederation of Sahel States. George Ajjan, Political Strategist at Ajjan Associates joins CNBC Africa for more on this and the future of the Economic Community of West African States.
Niger’s Junta leader, Abdourahamane Tiani, has been sworn in as president for a transition period of five years under a new charter that replaces the country’s constitution. According to the country’s Secretary General, Mahamane Roufai, this duration is flexible depending on the security situation, the burden of reforms and the agenda of the Confederation of Sahel States. George Ajjan, Political Strategist at Ajjan Associates joins me now for more on this and the future of the Economic Community of West African States. Thanks a lot for joining us on the show today, George. Thank you, David. Always a pleasure. Now, let's start with your take on this new charter as well, which also sees the swearing in of Abdourahamane Tiani as president for the transition period of five years. And how comfortable are you around the terms here, which might likely tip the adjustment to this duration? Because we are looking here at this reforms implementation, the pace of that, the agenda of the Confederation of Sahel States at this moment. It still remains unclear how the picture might get going forward. It's quite unclear and it's really a step change in the way that African countries have organized themselves and even their forms of government. Don't forget, we have always existed in this world of nation states and republics. All of these countries are essentially republics that have been formed less than 70 years ago. And now we're coming face to face with the legacy of colonialism. And it's no accident that not only Niger, but Mali and Burkina Faso have been on quite a different trajectory, having left ECOWAS and even last week left the Francophonie. This is a huge blow to France and its influence on the continent. And talking about the shifts we've seen here at this moment now, the fate of ECOWAS and how this is also introducing new dynamics to the formation of blocs and their relevance in today's matters. Would you say the scramble for Africa is over? You talked about the Francophonie influence here at this moment, but would you say the scramble for Africa is over? It's very, very, very, very far from over. If we look at the 20th century and we think about geopolitics in the context of oil resources, we can look at 21st century geopolitics in the context of mineral resources. And Russia has a stake in that. China has a stake in that. Even the Gulf countries are keen to invest, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, because they need those resources. Of course, the United States needs those resources. So whether it's Greenland, which nobody ever talked about before, is now a hot spot, and Africa is no different. So the scramble is far from over, and these countries like Niger know that, and they want their seat at the table. And talking about the seat at the table and the relevance this bloc, ECOWAS, still wields at this moment, we have to take a look at the official exit, which happened in January this year, on the back of the exit announcement, the notification in January 2024, when we had Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso announcing their formal exit. But now, with the terms around the yonder-led states to still enjoy the right to visa-free movement, resident and establishment, how do you expect ECOWAS to move going forward? On the back that we are still expecting some more elections this year, how certain or stable would you say the climate is around the west of the continent at this moment to still hold on to democratic principles? I think we have to look at the democratic aspect separate from the economic aspect. It's all well and good to break away from ECOWAS and have a common password for those three countries, but let's not forget they're landlocked countries. They require access to ports, and as we might discuss, the tension over using Cotonou and Benin as the port has been complicated. And so there will always have to be some sort of cordial relationship that facilitates economic exchange and trade, because those countries are landlocked. They don't have access to the ports, and the bigger countries and the bigger economic powers that we talked about just earlier need to have access to those minerals, which means they need to be able to transit them. So on the economic side, we will always have some sort of cooperation. And let's note, we talked about leaving the ECOWAS, we talked about leaving the francophonie, but the CFA franc is still the currency. It's much, much more difficult to unwind the economic and even monetary ties from the political. So whether it is a military dictatorship or it is a democratic election, that will unfold in its own way, which we can't predict. And the trend is not great if you're a fan of democratic elections that we have aspired to over time. But on the economic side, those links will not be severed so easily. But let's now talk about the fate of the bloc as well, to the individual countries on the back of these economic ramifications you've touched on. Inflation still largely remains sticky. We're looking at GDP growth forecast here. The average rate is about 4 percent growth rate. But for the likes of Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, where the terrain still remains rough at this moment, what sort of forecast do you have in terms of these economic metrics? It will depend on how effective these new governments are. These military-led governments are at managing the economy, cutting corruption and attracting investment. Now, they've always had influence and investment from China. Russia is keen to play a role. As I've mentioned, Gulf countries are keen to pour in capital. But all of that ultimately depends on the ability of the country to structure the investment climate such that those countries can extract something of value. So it will largely depend on their ability to govern effectively. And George, now, you know, I was asking much earlier if the cycle of coups is over at this moment because we're still quite away from the years 2020 to 2023. It relatively seems we are moving in a stable terrain. Would you say that's the true picture of what we have here on the continent as a whole? I have to chuckle a bit because I've been with you many times talking about particularly Nigerian elections and having to defend against the attack that, oh, these elections are corrupt, they're not free and fair. And I always came back saying they are far from perfect. They are very flawed. But there are elections happening. There is a multiparty system. And however flawed they are, however much intimidation there are going to the polls, it still happens. So when we look at what's happening in the countries to the north, Nigeria and the Sahel, countries like Nigeria come out smelling like a rose. So what will be very much in focus is what happens in Ivory Coast later this year, what happens in Gabon next month is going to elections. Senegal had elections recently. That was also a big blow to France because the winner is someone who is opposed to the colonial legacy of France, yet it was still an election. So we are in very uncertain terms and it will depend on the people to demand what they want in terms of elections. And it will depend on leaders to organise themselves well and be able to sustain democratic principles and keep these republics in check. Yes, and talking about keeping things in check, I would like to also bring a spotlight here, Togo for example now. The elections date have been shifting for quite a bit now. For you, your take around Togo. Togo is one of those that had a basically hereditary, Togo and Congo-Brazzaville for years and years and years basically a single family rule. Those situations in a republican form of government, it's one thing to be in a kingdom or an emirate like we have in the Middle Eastern countries. In Africa, that is sort of accidental and I don't think those dynamics can last forever. Sooner or later, other forces, whether they're military or they are an upswell of people demanding proper republics and proper democratic implementation will win the day, I think. And talking about winning the day, we also have to see a situation where we have a stronger third force. We cannot just have a dominant two or just a monopoly here. But George, thanks a lot for your time on the show today. It's been a pleasure speaking to you. My pleasure, David. Thank you.
Theme: Political Shift and Evolution in West Africa
Niger's political landscape has undergone a significant transformation as Junta leader, Abdourahamane Tiani, has been sworn in as president for a transition period of five years under a new charter that replaces the country's constitution. The duration of this transition period is said to be flexible, depending on various factors such as the security situation, the burden of reforms, and the agenda of the Confederation of Sahel States. This move marks a departure from the traditional forms of government in African countries and highlights the evolving dynamics in the region's political scene. George Ajjan, a Political Strategist at Ajjan Associates, sheds light on the implications of this new charter and its impact on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Ajjan emphasizes the significance of Africa's mineral resources in shaping modern geopolitics, with various global powers vying for influence on the continent. Despite recent exits from ECOWAS and the Francophonie by countries like Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, economic ties remain intertwined, underscoring the complex relationship between politics and economics. Moving forward, the effectiveness of the new governments in managing the economy, curbing corruption, and attracting investments will play a crucial role in determining the economic outlook for nations like Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali. Moreover, the landscape of democracy in the region remains uncertain, with ongoing political transitions raising questions about the sustainability of democratic principles. As countries grapple with internal challenges and external pressures, the need for effective governance and accountability becomes paramount. The interview also touches upon the upcoming elections in countries like Ivory Coast and Gabon, highlighting the evolving political dynamics in the region. Amidst these changes, the role of the people in demanding transparency and fair elections, as well as the responsibility of leaders to uphold democratic values, will shape the future of governance in West Africa. The discussion extends to Togo, where long-standing hereditary rule has defined the political landscape for years. Ajjan suggests that such dynamics are unsustainable in a republican form of government, underscoring the need for a shift towards true democratic governance. As West Africa navigates through political transitions and economic challenges, the push for greater democratization and accountability emerges as a common theme shaping the region's future.
"The push for greater democratization and accountability emerges as a common theme shaping the region's future."
['Niger', 'Junta Leader', 'Abdourahamane Tiani', 'Presidency', 'Transition Period', 'West Africa', 'ECOWAS', 'Political Shift', 'Democratic Principles', 'Economic Outlook']