In 2024, 13 out of the 17 scheduled elections in Africa held with seven incumbents retaining power and six new leaders emerging. A report by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, while highlighting findings from the Ibrahim Index of African Governance shows participatory and democratic measures have fallen in many election countries between 2014 and 2023. With 11 African countries scheduled to hold either general or presidential elections in 2025, what can be expected? Nathalie Delapalme, an Executive Director at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, joins CNBC Africa for this discussion.
In 2024, 13 out of the 17 scheduled elections in Africa held with seven incumbents retaining power and six new leaders emerging. A report by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, while highlighting findings from the Ibrahim Index of African Governance shows participatory and democratic measures have fallen in many election countries between 2014 and 2023. With 11 African countries scheduled to hold either general or presidential elections this year, what can be expected? Well, Nathalie Delapalme, an Executive Director at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, joins me now for more on this discussion. Nathalie, thanks a lot for joining us on the show today. Now, walk us through the highlights of your research brief here. No, thank you very much. Good morning to everybody and thank you very much for having me. Indeed, I think that 2024 was a challenging year for democratic life. In Africa only, executive elections were scheduled in 17 countries on the continent, which is one-third of African countries and it represents one-fifth of Africa's population. Out of the 17 scheduled elections, 13 were held. Out of the 13, six led to a change of leader, with four even including a shift of power to opposition, Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius, Senegal. Plus, in South Africa, ANC lost its majority for the first time and we had four postponed elections, Burkina Faso and Mali led by Juntas, South Sudan, who has never held an election since its creation, and Guinea-Bissau. Now, these are important numbers because they show three things. One, democracy does retain its appeal for African citizens who do vote when they can. Two, democracy does work and can indeed bring a change of leader and even shift of powers. And this happens despite concerning shifts in democracy and participatory spaces, as indeed, as you said, we highlighted in the latest Ibrahim Index of African Governance that was published end of last year. Well, Nathalie, now let's talk about your assessment of some indicators here now, looking at political pluralism and civil society space also shrinking much more significantly within the period under review. Because at the end of the day, when we talk about the quality of democracy we have on the continent, we have to see improved participation, rights and inclusion. What's your assessment on the indicators around political pluralism and civil society space shrinking? No, that's absolutely true and it is indeed a concerning trend because when we look over the last decade, 2014-2023, we do see shrinking space in democratic and participatory landscape. This is not happening only in Africa, to be quite frank. I mean, this growing mistrust in democracy is happening everywhere. It's specifically concerning in Africa because it threatens the progress that still needs to be done when it comes to economic and social development. On the positive side, I would say that there is a link between progress in governance and good governance performance and election. If you take Mauritania, for example, where President Ghazwani has been comfortably re-elected with over 56% of the votes, Mauritania was one of the countries who progressed the most in global governance and it was the only one to make progress in participation and it was one of two countries to make progress in rights and media freedom. On the other hand, when you look at countries where there has been a shift of power, like Mauritius and Botswana, indeed we can witness that the worst deterioration happened in participation, in rights and in media freedoms. Now, when it comes ahead of this and on top of this deterioration of the participation data that we can include in our index, I think there is something I want to highlight on the importance of participation. In these 17 countries that were scheduled for election in 2024, we had 180 million people that were potentially eligible to vote given their age. But in fact, there were too many hurdles actually preventing them to do so properly. The main one being the lack of identification. As I'm sure you all know, in Africa approximately 500 million people are still without identification and this is really something that we need to work on. Without identification, you can't vote. And the second point was access to polling stations. In Mauritius and Ghana, for example, we had a survey made by a formometer which showed us that in the last election before this one, over 80 percent of the surveyed people were unable to find or to reach their polling station. So we certainly need to work on this participation challenge as we need to work on the civil society space. Yes, Nathalie, you've clearly stated the task ahead for us now looking at other elections we expect this year. Gabon is in focus, Burkina Faso, Cameroon. These are economies we are looking quite keenly. What should we expect as a whole and what's your reading from the Mo Ibrahim Foundation as countries, for example, Togo is looking to have its election next month? I mean, you're absolutely right. We still have a very heavy electoral year looming ahead in 2025. Eleven elections are currently being scheduled. I would probably say that one key point for the elections coming in and specifically for the youth is prospects or the lack of economic and social prospects. In our last index, what we also highlighted is the fact that despite progress being made and showed by the data when it comes to economic prospects, public opinion is terrible. I mean, when we have data who are showing a progress or something around three points over the last decade, public opinion when it comes to economic prospects or what we call sustainable economic opportunity are losing more than 12 points. So it's certainly something that's going to have a priority effect in the incoming elections. Well, Nathalie, we'll have to leave the conversation here for now. Thank you so much for your time on the show today. That was Nathalie de la Palme, an executive director at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation.
Theme: Shifting Democratic Landscapes: Lessons from Africa's 2024 Elections
The year 2024 marked a pivotal moment for Africa, with 13 out of the 17 scheduled elections taking place across the continent. Seven incumbent leaders managed to retain power, while six new leaders emerged victorious. This significant event was captured in a report by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, shedding light on the Ibrahim Index of African Governance and revealing a concerning trend in participatory and democratic measures between 2014 and 2023. In a recent interview on CNBC Africa, Nathalie Delapalme, Executive Director at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, provided valuable insights into the findings and implications of the 2024 elections. Delapalme highlighted the challenges faced in 2024, where 17 executive elections were slated to occur in Africa, representing one-third of African countries and one-fifth of the population. Of the 17 scheduled elections, 13 were conducted, resulting in leadership changes in six countries, including noteworthy power shifts to opposition parties in Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius, and Senegal. The political landscape further saw the African National Congress (ANC) losing its majority in South Africa for the first time, alongside four postponed elections in Burkina Faso, Mali, South Sudan, and Guinea-Bissau. The data from these elections illuminated key takeaways. Firstly, it underscored the enduring appeal of democracy among African citizens, as evidenced by robust voter turnout. Secondly, it illustrated the efficacy of democracy in facilitating leadership changes and power transitions, despite concerning trends in democratic principles and participatory spaces, as highlighted in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance. Delapalme emphasized the critical link between governance performance and electoral outcomes, citing the case of Mauritania, where President Ghazwani's re-election correlated with advancements in governance indicators such as participation and media freedom. Moreover, Delapalme addressed the worrisome trend of shrinking political pluralism and diminishing civil society space in the continent. Over the past decade, there has been a notable decline in participatory avenues and democratic engagement, reflecting a global surge in democratic skepticism. She underlined the pivotal role of participation in sustaining democratic processes and the need for bolstering access to polling stations and identification mechanisms to enhance electoral inclusivity. Looking ahead to the upcoming elections in 2025, Delapalme stressed the economic and social challenges looming over African countries, particularly impacting the youth demographic. With 11 elections on the horizon, countries like Gabon, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Togo face scrutiny as they navigate the electoral landscape. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation's assessment signals a pressing need to address public sentiment on economic prospects and sustainable opportunities, as diverging data trends and public perceptions pose critical considerations for the electoral outcomes. In conclusion, the 2024 elections in Africa unveiled a complex tapestry of democratic narratives, showcasing both the resilience of democratic ideals and the need for continuous vigilance in protecting and enhancing democratic principles. As African nations gear up for a flurry of elections in 2025, the lessons learned from the past year serve as a guiding light in navigating the dynamic terrain of governance and electoral dynamics on the continent.
"The 2024 elections in Africa unveiled a complex tapestry of democratic narratives, showcasing both the resilience of democratic ideals and the need for continuous vigilance in protecting and enhancing democratic principles."
['Africa elections', 'Mo Ibrahim Foundation', 'Democratic governance', 'Political pluralism', 'Civil society', '2024 elections', 'African democracy', 'Participatory democracy', 'Economic prospects']