Supply Chain Africa believes regional initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, geopolitical realignment and BRICS influence are among top 5 dynamics that will shape security and supply chains in Sub-Saharan Africa this year. Adebayo Adeleke, CEO of Supply Chain Africa says the continent is at the crossroads of significant transformation and understanding the relationship between these dynamics have become crucial. He joins CNBC Africa for more.
Supply Chain Africa believes regional initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, geopolitical realignment and BRICS influence are among top 5 dynamics that will shape security and supply chains in Sub-Saharan Africa this year. Adebayo Adeleke, CEO of Supply Chain Africa says the continent is at the crossroads of significant transformation and understanding the relationship between these dynamics have become crucial. He joins me now virtually for more on this discussion. Thanks a lot for joining us on the show today Mr Adeleke. Let's get right into the discussions whether or not the continent as a whole has a clear understanding of these dynamics at play. Walk us through your assessment of the year 2025-2024, the sort of performance we saw, the understanding and the continent's response to these challenges, vulnerabilities we have within our security and supply chain space and how does that set the tone for the work ahead we should expect in 2025? Thank you so much David for having me back on the Power Lunch again. 2024 presented us with a lot of challenges and insights what 2025 is going to look like. The progress on African Continental Free Trade Agreement has been quite profound and I see that actually well entrenched in 2025. But what I see happening, I don't think the continent, to your first question, I don't think the continent as a whole understands the impact of human security on geopolitics, on trade, and that's quite evident in the use of non-state actors. That's also in the weaponization of supply chains and I see that actually happening throughout 2025 because they understand that through the use of the non-conventional methods and guerrilla warfare methods they'll be able to achieve their end state. And without that, without human security being co-operable, being addressed, it's going to be extremely difficult for any other initiative, for infrastructure to take hold, for regional alignment to take hold, even for diversification of supply chain that we're trying to accomplish to the use of BRICS, as we see in Ethiopia and Egypt joining BRICS right now. But if all this human security is not being addressed, is our food security, economic security, political security, environmental security, physical and community security, if all these expressions of human security are not addressed, it's going to be extremely difficult to understand or to be able to push through the supply chain corridors that need to be secured on the continent for both import and export. Now let's talk about new dynamics at play now. We also have elections which have thrown up new leaders on the continent and outside of the continent. Here in West Africa we have new presidents, you look at the United States, the emergence of Trump and how some of the potential policies might also affect the concept around a protectionist stance. Let's have your take on these dynamics at play right now and in terms of securing our critical trade corridors, how should we now position as a continent, speaking with one voice and then looking at the integration of our markets, how do we continue to press forward much more seamlessly? So first thing first, the election of Donald Trump presented a great challenge. It's like Trump 2.0, we saw what the first time in office looks like. But America is turning inwards, and so are so many other countries in Europe and Africa and sub-Saharan as well. With that mishap, we've already seen the use of tariffs as a weapon, weaponizing trade, weaponizing supply chain, and America will try to go to friendly sharing and all, or call it unsharing right now. With that being the case, a lot of products coming out of Africa is going to be quite questionable, or might be subject to higher tariffs. And Africa, from what Trump's perspective is, is like, look, if you're not willing to do business with me, I'm not willing to do business with us. It's a change of business. So what that means for Africa, the largest market might not be accessible in some of the products. But at the same time, I also present another opportunity as well, because the critical minerals that are coming out of the continent is necessary for America to maintain its prowess, especially as they're trying to maintain the single world order. So it's kind of a tilted balance right now, but I think Africa as a whole can come together as a united force to use the critical minerals to be able to push Trump in a way that he releases, kind of relaxes us, his isolation on Africa. But I don't see that happening as well, because over the years, historically, Africa has not spoken in one voice. We hope that African Connector Fitted Agreement will present a challenge in which Africa can actually diversify. If it becomes improbable for African countries to penetrate the American market due to Trump tariffs and his isolation metrics mechanism, then diversification into the BRICS world will be the alternative way to go, so that African export and import can continue to move, and we can actually build the infrastructure that is needed. So all these things are all interwoven and interlinked, so you cannot really have one without the other, the trade, the geopolitics, the security, and everything that is going on around the world, everywhere in the global south. So anything that the global north sneezes, we catch cold in the global south. It's just the way of the world. And I like the fact that you've also identified critical minerals, because we're having ongoing conversations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. That's the Future Minerals Forum. Wrapping up, we have some representation from Africa as well, talking about how the continent positions as a whole, looking at the mix of the transition to cleaner energy sources, and a whole lot of that conversation there. And in a couple of days, we'll also be having the World Economic Forum as well. Hold, these are deliberations whereby Africa definitely has to speak with one voice, and you've raised the concerns as to whether or not we can really pull that much of attention and responsibility towards ensuring that we have Africa's challenges being addressed. But moving forward now, in terms of risks, you've spoken about not speaking with one voice. How do you see the prospects going further? What might be the blind spots African leaders are yet to clearly wake up to? I think the blind spot has always been there, you know, ability to understand that the issue of security, what a factory corridor does. And that we've seen it play out in Congo, play out in Nigeria, play out in Sub-Saharan, the Mali, the Niger, the Burkina Faso, or whatnot. And I will continue to neglect these issues. We cannot improve our infrastructure, the FDIs will not be, frankly, reduced. So all these things, I mean, we keep kicking this ball down the road, hopefully that something is going to happen, but it's not. Everybody's being empowered, all different tools, the use of AI is being used by all these notorious actors. So until Africa actually gets hold of this, it's one of the most painful aspects of it all, either for security, water security, any form of security that can be addressed, I think we can have an uptick in being able to actually speak with one voice. But unfortunately, I don't see the continent speaking in a voice right now. I think the major market has to take the lead and the rest will follow. I think that's what's going to happen if we have to see some kind of movement and progress on the continent. Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, Algeria, all these big markets have to actually be the ones to take the lead. Because for us speaking in one voice, it has never happened, and I don't think it will happen anytime soon. So I believe the big stakeholders have to take the lead and the rest will follow. And talking about taking lead, we have to definitely see the key pillars of technology and infrastructure take a stronger hold here on the continent. Thanks a lot for your time on the show today, Mr. Adeleke. That was Adebayo Adeleke, Chief Executive Officer of Supply Chain Africa.
Theme: Geopolitical Shifts and Security Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa
Africa is standing at a pivotal moment in history, with regional initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), geopolitical realignment, and BRICS influence poised to significantly shape security and supply chains in Sub-Saharan Africa. Adebayo Adeleke, CEO of Supply Chain Africa, shared his insights on these dynamics and the challenges and opportunities they present for the continent. Adeleke highlighted the crucial importance of understanding the relationship between these factors, emphasizing the need to address human security to facilitate progress in trade and infrastructure development. He expressed concerns about the impact of non-state actors and the weaponization of supply chains, stressing the need for a unified approach to tackle these complex issues. Looking back at 2024, Adeleke reflected on the progress made with the AfCFTA and underscored the need for greater awareness of the interconnectedness of human security, geopolitics, and trade. He pointed out that without addressing various dimensions of human security, including food, economic, and political security, advancing regional alignment and supply chain diversification would be challenging. Adeleke also discussed the changing geopolitical landscape, noting the implications of events such as the election of new leaders and the protectionist stance adopted by some countries, including the United States. He cautioned about the use of tariffs and the potential barriers they could create for African products in global markets, while also highlighting opportunities for leveraging Africa's critical minerals to engage with major economies like the US and the BRICS nations. Adeleke stressed the importance of unity among African countries to navigate these challenges and explore alternative trade routes in the face of protectionist policies. He urged for a coordinated effort to speak with one voice and enhance market integration to bolster the continent's resilience against external pressures. The conversation extended to the evolving energy landscape and the role of critical minerals in the transition to cleaner energy sources, signaling the need for strategic positioning in global forums to advance Africa's interests. As discussions unfold at events like the Future Minerals Forum and the World Economic Forum, the focus remains on aligning priorities and addressing key issues affecting the continent's development. Adeleke also highlighted the pressing need for African leaders to address blind spots related to security and infrastructure, emphasizing the detrimental effects of neglecting these fundamental aspects. He called for a collective effort to prioritize security concerns and invest in technology and infrastructure to drive sustainable growth and stability. While acknowledging the challenges of achieving unity and coherence among African nations, Adeleke underscored the pivotal role of major markets like Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, and Algeria in setting the pace for regional cooperation. By taking the lead in addressing security risks and promoting technological advancements, these countries can pave the way for a more cohesive and resilient Africa. As Sub-Saharan Africa navigates a complex landscape marked by geopolitical shifts and security challenges, the importance of strategic decision-making and collaborative action cannot be overstated. By understanding the interplay between security, trade, and regional dynamics, African nations can chart a path towards a more secure and prosperous future.
"It's going to be extremely difficult for any other initiative, for infrastructure to take hold, for regional alignment to take hold, even for diversification of supply chain that we're trying to accomplish."
['Africa', 'Supply Chains', 'Geopolitical Shifts', 'AfCFTA', 'Security', 'BRICS', 'Trade', 'Infrastructure', 'Human Security']