CNBC Africa is by Nigel Green, CEO, deVere Group and Harry Scherzer, CEO, Future Forex for this discussion.
Now, Bitcoin has had a bumpy start to the new year, no surprises there, but in context it did soar around 125% in 2024, hitting several record highs. The price of the digital coin in today's session, up almost 3% to last I checked, slightly below the US$100,000 mark which would mark record ground. But to walk us through what to expect from the world of crypto in 2025, I'm joined by Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, as well as Harry Scherzer, the CEO of Future Forex. Nigel, just to begin with you, I mean the classic saying does go, how you start is not necessarily how you finish, but what do you make of how Bitcoin has come into 2025? I think it just soared so much on the news that Trump was elected and there's obviously lots of positivity around it. There was bound to be some profit taking and that's exactly what we've seen, we've seen that at the start of the year. Obviously next week Donald Trump takes office, so for me I would expect another run to start very shortly and that to continue for quite a few months into next year. Profit taking is how you're describing these moves, I suppose a very, very credible sort of reasoning just following the blockbuster year that it did have in 2024. Harry, is the same perception or sentiment felt by you in terms of the rocky start that Bitcoin has had, notwithstanding the fact that it is positive today? Thanks for having me on and yeah, I think Nigel's 100% correct that it had such a massive 2024 that there has been some profit taking, hence the slight correction in price. Now where Nigel may be correct and in my view may be incorrect is when Trump gets elected, it's questionable whether it will soar again or whether it will have a further correction and the reason I say that is what we see with crypto and Bitcoin in particular quite often is that the anticipation is more where the market reacts than the execution and we saw this with the halving event, we saw this with the ETF coming in. What ends up happening is that on the news that something will be happening, the market goes wild and then when it actually gets executed, sometimes there's actually a correction when people realize it's not as impactful as had been expected early on. So it's unknown whether it'll continue to soar which may well happen and Nigel may well be correct or if like we've seen in the past, it actually corrects a bit because it got overly excited early on on news that Trump would come in. Nigel you want to come in there and maybe unpack why you reckon that Bitcoin still has a lot more room to run this year, notwithstanding the views that some are taking like Harry that perhaps everything is already baked in the price right now. Yeah I think Harry's absolutely got a point what's happened in the past is people buy the rumour, buy the expectation and then they sell the news. So that is quite normal not just in Bitcoin but actually in stock as well. You see that a company is going to be reporting and everybody's super positive and the stock soars and then when it actually reports positively then there's a sell-off. So I think that that does happen and we could see that but there's also lots of other policies for Bitcoin. I mean for the first time ever you're seeing ETFs that are really being used by some of the biggest, biggest fund managers in the world and that has really added the credibility to it and makes it that much more accessible to people. And then if you look at Donald Trump he's appointed people around him that are all fans of the digital space and so you know even the chairman of the SEC now is somebody that's a fan of digital currencies. So I think he wants to make it the crypto capital of the planet he actually said. I can see that there's a run here coming and whilst I believe in diversification, I wouldn't put all my money in one thing, I do think that you've got the potential for a good run over at least the next six months and we'll see obviously who's right on that but the expectations are quite high as we go into the starting of the presidency. And Harry then just get your views on what you reckon some of the major drivers in either direction for the crypto market but quite specifically could be for 2025. Nigel mentioned the gaining of sort of credibility amongst institutional investors, what's happening with the embracing of ETFs and also Trump's posturing to say that he wants to make the US the crypto capital as it were. Although I think I did read during the festive season that Russian President Vladimir Putin also had a similar kind of posturing. But what are your main factors that you reckon will drive price activity this year? Yeah so what it comes down to Fifi is that one of the major factors that might drive price activity is simply a correction to the current price. It may be that the current price is higher than it should be in light of Trump being elected and there might be a slight correction downwards. That's not to say that crypto is not on course to potentially have a great year, it is and Nigel's 100% correct. It's not only Trump that's pro-crypto, it's all the people around him as well. He's bringing in a whole bunch of pro-crypto people which will make it more easily accessible, more easy to integrate into society. So I absolutely agree that we're primed for potentially a very good year for crypto. The question is whether those recent gains have over anticipated and really there might be a pullback albeit still to our higher price just not as high as we currently see. So there's a lot that drives this. I mean on a more macro level looking at economics, crypto typically reacts similarly to a risky asset. It actually reacts similarly to something like the rand, an emerging market currency like the rand. And we saw today CPI went up lower than expected which led people to believe that there might be interest rate cuts in the future from the U.S. And lo and behold, the rand strengthened as did crypto and bitcoin. And that's what we tend to see is that crypto does tend to play very much like a risky asset. So much like things that can strengthen the rand from an international point of view, those same factors like interest rate cuts and low inflation, those same things are likely to increase, fundamentally increase the price of crypto over the 2025 year. So let's stay on that point on economic policy outlook for interest rates specifically. And Nigel perhaps you can weigh in here. In the event a worst case scenario plays out and we actually get less interest rate cuts coming from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year because of a whole host of reasons, inflation being the primary concern or inflation risks being the primary concern. In the event that some of the contrarian market forecasters are correct right now in terms of 2025 being the year where we could get the introduction of interest rate hikes coming from the U.S., what then does that mean for the kind of volatility that we could see in crypto? Yeah, it's interesting. You're absolutely right. You could have inflation that's sticky. The figures came in today, they're a little bit lower than expected. But there's still every sign that inflation is actually quite strong. And the Fed has said quite clearly they want to make sure that inflation gets under 2% and stays under 2%. So I think the market is perhaps a little bit optimistic on interest rates. And you could see a situation where the Fed don't reduce interest rates, or perhaps there's only one reduction next year. If that's the case, then stock is anticipating that you're going to get a fall in interest rates. So if that doesn't happen, then you're likely to get a fall in some stock. So just think, when the market goes up, you get some going up and some going down. So if I took 100 stock, when the market's going up, you might have 60 going up and 40 going down. And then you have the reverse. So there's always something, there's good investments there. But you should be aware that potentially inflation is sticky, interest rates stay high. If they do, the dollar may well stay high because interest rates stay high. That could see a drop off in the rand and other currencies against the dollar. Although the dollar has been so strong, you kind of think, well, some stage it's got to come down, but it may not be in the nearer future. So does that affect Bitcoin? Yes, potentially. It does. But I still feel that there's so many other good factors for it. And also some stock, you know, whilst I'm not going to invest in an index, I feel there's some stock that are going to perform very, very well going forward. Sure. Gentlemen, can I hold you to some price targets to share some price targets? I mean, both of you have spoken about the likelihood of corrections being seen this year, the kind of corrections that perhaps we have seen at the start of 2025. And both of you have also spoken about the fact that you are expecting 2025 to be a good year for Bitcoin. So what does good look like in terms of price targets? And Harry, maybe you can start here. What does the correction look like in terms of how low it can go? Yeah, I thought you'd give Nigel the first go, but I'll take the baton. In terms of price targets, look, if you speak to crypto enthusiasts, they'll tell you it's going to a million dollars. If you speak to crypto skeptics, they'll tell you it's going to zero. So the truth is because of the sentiments at play here, it's a very wide range of price targets. If I were to set sort of where I see crypto by the end of the year, I'd be very, very surprised if it more than doubles in price, although that's what people are saying under the new administration. I'd be very surprised if it more than doubles in price, even if everything goes well fundamentally. I think without Trump making actual changes in policy, which allow crypto to be more integrated into society, I can't see crypto coming near double its current price. So my suspicion is the best crypto will do this year, realistically, will be around the $150,000 mark. And should it go the other direction and actually we see a correction, I don't see any reason that that correction can't be 50% of its value or more. So really, my very wide price target would be somewhere between $50,000 and $150,000, which I understand is extremely high as a range. But this is what happens with such a volatile asset, which also is so sentiment driven. There's very little that we can do to be sure where it's going. So unfortunately, I can't give you a specific price target, but I suspect between $50,000 and $150,000. Not specific, but extremely wide. We appreciate it, nonetheless. Nigel, your thoughts and is your range as wide in terms of how high and how low Bitcoin can go this year? Okay, well, I'll go with $150,000 as well. I've actually said that, so I better stick with it. So $150,000, I agree with. Okay, that's my feeling that Asaga is. Harry's absolutely right. Some people are talking really very, very big figures, but I think $150,000 is certainly possible. I said $125,000 first quarter. So I think me and Harry would say the direction overall is up, but he thinks perhaps the bumps come in sooner than I think the bumps. I actually don't see a down year. So I think that it'll hold at least its current price. So I think it'll be on $100,000 at least at the end of the year, and I think it'll be $150,000. Okay, but I'm still going to emphasize, even though I've said that, don't put all your money in one asset to answer it. So if you're an investor, it is speculative, Harry said that. Okay, I would be always diversifying, and really, I guess it does depend on your age and your attitude towards risk, but it's 5% to 10% of the assets that, in my opinion, a portfolio should have. You should be looking for diversification, and you should be making sure that you've got a good advisor explaining how to do that properly. That's some really good advice, Nigel. Perhaps some of our viewers who are listening to your more bullish forecasts of where a Bitcoin could go, would make the mistake of wanting to put all the eggs in one basket. But thanks so much for providing that clarity to say it should be about a portion of your portfolio, 5% to 10% in your view. But bottom line, not all the eggs. Gentlemen, thanks so much for your time. We'll leave it there. Nigel Green, CEO at Devere Group, and Harry Schutzer, the CEO at Future Forex.
Theme: Insights and forecasts on the crypto market for 2025 from industry leaders
The year 2025 has started with a bumpy ride for Bitcoin, which had a phenomenal 2024, soaring around 125% and hitting record highs. Despite some profit-taking at the beginning of the year, the digital coin is up almost 3% in today's session, hovering just below the US$100,000 mark. To shed light on what lies ahead for the world of crypto in 2025, CNBC Africa hosted Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, and Harry Scherzer, CEO of Future Forex for a discussion. Green believes that the positive momentum that propelled Bitcoin in 2024, particularly on the news of Trump's election, is likely to continue as the new administration takes office. He anticipates another bull run to commence shortly and extend for several months. On the other hand, Scherzer is more cautious, highlighting the potential for market corrections due to inflated expectations preceding actual events, such as Trump's policies. However, both agree that institutional backing, including the use of ETFs by major fund managers, and Trump's pro-crypto stance could fuel further growth in the crypto market. They also discuss how crypto behaves as a risky asset, influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates and inflation. The interview also delves into the impact of U.S. Federal Reserve policies on crypto volatility, with differing opinions on potential interest rate cuts or hikes in 2025. While Green remains bullish, emphasizing the positive developments in the crypto space, Scherzer cautions against overestimating the impact of Trump's administration on crypto prices. Both experts provide price targets, with Scherzer presenting a wide range of $50,000 to $150,000, factoring in market sentiment and potential corrections. Green echoes the upper end of the range, expressing confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of the year. However, he advocates for prudent investment strategies, recommending a diversified portfolio with crypto assets comprising only 5% to 10%. The discussion concludes with a reminder to investors not to put all their eggs in one basket and seek professional advice for sound investment decisions.
"Some people are talking really very, very big figures, but I think $150,000 is certainly possible. I said $125,000 first quarter. So I think me and Harry would say the direction overall is up, but he thinks perhaps the bumps come in sooner than I think the bumps. I actually don't see a down year."
crypto market, Bitcoin, 2025 outlook, Nigel Green, Harry Scherzer, CNBC Africa, deVere Group, Future Forex, Trump, ETFs, institutional investors, interest rates, volatility