Data from SBM Intelligence Africa Country Instability Risk index shows Sub-Saharan Africa recorded an average of 45.4 per cent this year. Of the 48 countries surveyed, 31 reported improved performance, while the rest deteriorated. Confidence MacHarry, Senior Analyst at SBM Intelligence joins CNBC Africa for more.
The data from SBM Intelligence Africa Country Instability Risk index shows Sub-Saharan Africa recorded an average of 45.4 per cent this year. Of the 48 countries surveyed, 31 reported improved performance, while the rest deteriorated. Confidence MacHarry, Senior Analyst at SBM Intelligence joins me now for more on this. Confidence, thank you so much. Pleasure to have you on the show with us. It's nice to be here. So, I mean, elections in South Africa and Senegal, attempted coups in the Sahel region and of course climate, adverse climate issues, all contributing to instability in the region. But you highlighted political, economic and social factors, all contributing. Let's start with political. Tell us, I mean, as highlighted in the report, what do we need to know? What were the biggest, what is, did we see the biggest impact? Yeah, I think in South Africa, for instance, I think last year, during last year's reports, we saw South Africa top in the charts, especially when it comes to regional comparison. We see the same thing this year. But if you look at it across regional perspective, you tend to find Central Africa gaining more than, you get to see countries in Central Africa making more improvements, as in getting to the top five, top ten countries in South Africa. But overall, what you have is South Africa continues to maintain its top spot as the leading region in this, compared with, say, Eastern Africa that was worse off. So, in terms of, if you look at countries individually, you get to see economic improvements in places like Angola, for instance, put top in the charts and everything. But for the people who end, made the top spots last year, people like countries like Mauritius, Seychelles, South Africa and the rest, the economy slowed, a bit of some lagging and everything, economic inconsistence, political inconsistence and everything. So, it slowed down the performance for 2024. It's too much that we're seeing, about minus 1.3 degrees in Southern Africa compared to last year. But their own position is much more improved compared to what we have in East Africa or Central Africa, where you have much more worse results. As you said, there were lots of factors, even though this year we get to see more of the same, that in stable countries where the political economy or the political climate is more stable, that has a history of, should I say, stable political environment, I'm talking Senegal, I'm talking South Africa, I'm talking Mauritius and everything, we've seen opposition parties win. But for the places where we've not really seen that commitment to democratic accountability, it was basically more of the same. I'm talking about places like Chad and the likes where the government in waiting was still the government that was there before. Right. Let's talk from an economic perspective, what were the key factors that you saw? I know inflation is obviously still big for many of the, both Central, West and Southern, but speak to that point, what were the key issues? Inflation is a big problem. So Angola, that was at the top of the Guinness list, its inflation is still at 27%. But improvements to its economy, in terms of improvements, especially if you look at not just investments on parts, you're looking at things like its oil outputs has improved. And then I think forecasts from the IMF said that Angola's economy was going to improve, but I think it was going to grow substantially from about 2.5, where it was 2.3 last year before. I also saw a significant output in its oil production going from about 1.3 to 1.8 this year. So inflation is still a thing. But other areas in the economy are significantly improved. So it's not necessarily the same thing across board where you're seeing this thing. But for some other countries, inflation has slowed. It's not necessarily the same thing that drove inflation in this other country. It has been a driver in terms of their score, is what we're seeing in this place. So Angola's inflation hasn't really improved, it's still at 27%, but in other areas it has improved. But in some other countries it's not necessarily the same thing. Let's talk about the social issues. What important key points did the report highlight? In terms of social issues, the report basically looks at leadership issues, geopolitical issues, and several other such factors. One of the key highlights of the report is, in terms of political instability, for instance, a big, big indicator, a big, big predictor of how stable a political climate is, is its history. Because it had a coup before, the chances of it having a coup again is going to be high. We saw the same thing in the Western Sahel, where countries that have experienced coups, especially in the red-list countries, they had rumours of coups a lot over again. And then countries that have experienced political instability in the past, this 2024 reinforced it in so many ways. And then another thing we also marked was social unrest, in terms of youth protests and arrests. So for countries that we noticed that had this history of youth unrest when it comes to large protests and everything, it was still an enforcement of more of the We're talking Nigeria, we're talking about other low-income countries in West Africa, in Central Africa, and in Southern Africa. So these are some of the social factors that we had to take into account, and also other factors such as gerontocracy, the age of leadership in power, and then the composition of the major sectors, politically and economically. Right. I wish we had more time, Confidence, but we're going to have to leave it there. But thank you so much for talking to us about the report today. Confidence Makari, Senior Analyst at SBM Intelligence.
Theme: Sub-Saharan Africa's Instability Risk Index in 2024
The latest data from the SBM Intelligence Africa Country Instability Risk index reveals that Sub-Saharan Africa has recorded an average index of 45.4% this year. The comprehensive report surveyed 48 countries in the region, with 31 countries showing improved performance while the remaining countries experienced deterioration. The Senior Analyst at SBM Intelligence, Confidence MacHarry, delved into the key factors contributing to the instability in the region, including political, economic, and social issues. From a political perspective, the report highlighted South Africa's continued dominance in terms of stability, with Central Africa showing improvements and Eastern Africa facing challenges. Countries like Angola demonstrated economic progress, but historically stable economies like Mauritius and Seychelles experienced slowdowns in performance. In terms of climate impact, Southern Africa faced a significant decrease in temperature, albeit still showing improvement compared to other regions. Economically, inflation remained a major concern across Central, West, and Southern Africa. Angola, despite improvements in its economy such as enhanced oil output, continues to grapple with high inflation at 27%. The IMF forecasts signaled positive growth for Angola, but inflation has been a major driver affecting the country's overall score. The social issues highlighted in the report focused on leadership stability, geopolitical factors, and historical political unrest. Countries with a history of coups were more likely to experience political instability, with the Western Sahel region prone to recurring coup rumors. Social unrest, particularly manifested through youth protests and arrests, was noted in countries like Nigeria and other low-income nations across the region. In a brief but insightful discussion, Confidence MacHarry emphasized the importance of historical context in predicting political stability and the impact of social factors such as youth unrest and gerontocracy on the region's overall risk index. While time constraints limited the in-depth analysis during the interview, the report underscores the multifaceted nature of instability in Sub-Saharan Africa. As Sub-Saharan Africa navigates the complexities of political, economic, and social challenges, the need for proactive measures to address key issues raised in the SBM Intelligence report becomes critical. The report serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders seeking a comprehensive understanding of the region's instability landscape in 2024.
"The chances of a coup happening again are high in countries with a history of coups, reinforcing political instability in Sub-Saharan Africa."
['SBM Intelligence', 'Africa Country Instability Risk index', 'Sub-Saharan Africa', 'political instability', 'economic factors', 'social issues', 'youth protests', 'Angola', 'inflation', 'leadership stability']